18 October 2007

NCAAF Picks 18/10/07

Picks for this weekend's games; odds from USA Today.

Vanderbilt +13.5 against South Carolina
I'm not saying that the Commodores will win, but the Gamecocks may have a bit of trouble with this matchup. South Carolina beat the Tarheels by 6 last week, so they'll be looking to win big (of course, Spurrier always does), but Vandy is good enough to keep it within 10.

Tennessee straight up against Alabama
Here I go with the Vols again, for the third time in a row... they came through with a 12-point win last week. This time, they should win by 4 (I'm guessing 21-17), behind Ainge's arm, overwhelming the Saban-led Tide.

Ole Miss +5.5 against Arkansas
The Razorbacks have perhaps the best running back tandem in the country. Running and defense wins championships, right? So why are they only 3-3? Unfortunately, there's another part of the formula - the second variable (defense), at which Arkansas really sucks.

Florida -7 against Kentucky
The Gators have had a very tough couple of weeks; now, they get to play against an excellent Wildcats team with one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Kentucky, on the other hand, is coming off of a gigantic win. Sound like a trap to you? Yeah, me too.

Mississippi State +23 against West Virginia
The Bulldogs aren't a very good SEC team. The Mountaineers are a pretty solid Big East team. But a 23-point spread? That's a bit much.

Auburn +10.5 against LSU
The margins from the last 3 Auburn-LSU games: 1 point, 3 points, 4 points. 10.5 > 4. Isn't math lovely? Alternatively, the Tigers are better than they have been in a while... ah, forget it. LSU wins by 5.

Out-of-conference Pick
South Florida -3 against Rutgers
Unfortunately, my picking them probably guarantees that the Bulls, they of Grothe and Selvie, will lose this week. Then again, my acknowledging the jinx may reverse the effect (in a sort of postmodernist meta-jinx). You can't fool me - it's just turtles, turtles, turtles all the way down.

Last week: 3-3-1 (disappointing, but not disastrous)
Season: 19-12-1

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