16 November 2007

16/11/07 NCAAF Picks

Last week was good for 90% Mental's picks... the only blemish came from Mississippi State's win over Alabama. When will Saban live up to my expectations?

Because, clearly, the expectations of an anonymous, faceless blogger who Saban will in all likelihood never see in real life, and whose column Saban will probably never read, are all that matter.

Odds from USA Today.

Florida -34 against Florida Atlantic
FAU isn't a terrible team - they're 5-4 on the season, including a victory over Minnesota. But Florida is on a roll at the moment, having beaten Vanderbilt and South Carolina by a combined 47 points.

Kentucky +4 against Georgia
Andre Woodson will be on form in this game, and should (Gators fans hope, and there is reason to believe - see Georgia's 44-34 escape against Troy) slice through a slightly questionable Bulldogs defense.

Tennessee -11.5 against Vanderbilt
Last year, Tennessee won this game by 29, on the road. This year, they're a better team, and the game is at home.

Mississippi State +10 against Arkansas
Interesting stat: MSU are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 road games. It seems every time I pick against the Bulldogs, they pull an upset. Why should one 6-4 SEC team be favored by 10 points over another 6-4 team?

Alabama -25 against UL Monroe
When these two teams played last year, Alabama won by 34. While Alabama isn't a great team, they're pretty solid, last week's loss to Mississippi State notwithstanding.

LSU -18 against Ole Miss
An SEC team, on the road at another SEC team, favored by 18? Absolutely. Ole Miss has victories this season against NW State, Louisiana Tech, and Memphis - not exactly victories that will rock the Sagarin.

Out-of-Conference Pick:
Ohio State -4 against Michigan
It's tough to pick against Michigan in the Big House, where they're nearly unbeatable. What? They're not? Maybe it's not so tough.

Last week: 6-1
Season: 37-22-1

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