04 October 2008

NCAA Football Picks - 10.04.2008

Hey y'all -

Last week was one of the weirder ones I've ever had in terms of my picks. I got a couple of games really, really wrong - see TCU vs. Oklahoma and Florida vs. Ole Miss - and then a couple of games really, really wright (as in Wilbur and Orville) - see Alabama vs. Georgia and Auburn vs. Tennessee.

This week, we'll se if we can have more of the good picks and fewer of the bad ones. Vague enough for ya? (and yes, that was a completely gratuitous Sarah Palin joke. Ooh... burn...) Odds from USA Today.

Florida -22 against Arkansas
The Gators last week suffered a loss to Ole Miss. While the loss itself shouldn't have been totally shocking (in retrospect), given how tightly the Rebels always play UF, the way that the Gators self-destructed in that game was, and still is, completely inexplicable. UF won't self-destruct this week... and Arkansas will pay.
Prediction: UF 41, Arkansas 13

South Carolina +2 against Ole Miss
I'm taking a chance here; South Carolina is a less-than-inspiring 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. Here's my logic, though: Ole Miss is coming off of a huge, emotional win against UF. South Carolina is coming off of a disappointing win against UAB. South Carolina's going to be angry. Ole Miss is going to be suffering a little bit of a letdown.
Prediction: South Carolina 24, Ole Miss 20

Alabama -16.5 against Kentucky
Look out for this game! Both of these teams are undefeated - Kentucky may be more solid than was initially thought (you like how I left that in the passive and avoided saying who thought it?). Still - Alabama looks really, really good. Let's ride it for a little bit, eh?
Prediction: Alabama 30, Kentucky 12

Auburn -3.5 against Vanderbilt
Is it really possible that a Vanderbilt game is one of the biggest of the week? Wow. Still, I think the magical interlude that the Commodores have been enjoying will end here. Auburn's offense has been struggling - but when the Tigers start to struggle, they go back to basics: running the football and playing good defense. Vandy relies on forcing turnovers - and it's a lot harder to force turnovers when the ball is being pounded down your throat than when it's floating through the air.
Prediction: Auburn 27, Vanderbilt 17

Out-of-Conference Pick:
Ohio State -2.5 against Wisconsin
The Buckeyes are healthy again, and they've finally settled on a quarterback. More importantly, they've settled on the right quarterback. Wisconsin will keep this game close, but won't be able to pull it out.
Prediction: Ohio State 18, Wisconsin 13

Out-of-Conference Pick:
Oregon +16.5 against Southern Cal
I've just got a feeling about this game... I don't know why. I feel like Oregon will, at the very least, keep this contest close... oh, what the heck, why not.
Prediction: Oregon 31, Southern Cal 29

Last Week: 3-5 (as I said, a weird week)
Season: 18-20 (not where it should be)

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